The first day of ＂Seven Downs and Eight Ups＂： The flood control of the Yangtze River has entered a critical period, and the situation is still grim.
Xinhua News Agency, Wuhan, July 15th Title: The first day of "Seven Downs and Eight Ups": The flood control of the Yangtze River has entered a critical period and the situation is still grim.
Xinhua News Agency reporter Li Siyuan
Since the main flood season, heavy rainfall has continued to occur in the Yangtze River basin, and various provinces and cities along the Yangtze River have suffered from floods to varying degrees. What is the current flood situation in the Yangtze River, and what kind of shortcomings does it face? What kind of flood and rain situation will we face in the future? On the first day of the critical period of flood control (from July 15th to August 15th), the reporter walked into the Yangtze River Water Resources Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources, which is known as the "brain of flood control in the Yangtze River", and directly attacked the "No.1 flood in the Yangtze River".
44-station super police and 2-station super guarantee that the flood control situation in the Yangtze River is still grim
Since Jiangxi and Hunan entered the flood season 25 days ahead of schedule on March 6, the precipitation in the Yangtze River basin is generally high. Especially since July, the Yangtze River Basin has been experiencing continuous heavy rainfall. Affected by this, from July 3 to July 15, there were 129 stations in 76 rivers in the Yangtze River basin with floods exceeding the police and above, including 111 stations exceeding the police, 15 stations exceeding the guarantee and 3 stations exceeding the history.
Chaojing and above stations are mainly distributed in Yuanjiang River, Zishui River and Xiangjiang River in Dongting Lake system, Poyang Lake system and lake area, Shuiyangjiang River, a tributary of the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and the main stream of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Among them, the section from Hengshan to Xiangtan River in the lower reaches of the Xiangjiang River has a catastrophic flood with a return period of over 50 years. At 5: 00 on the 13th, the water level in jiujiang railway station rose to the warning level of 20.00 meters, which reached the flood numbering standard according to the Regulations on Flood Numbering of Major Rivers in China, forming the No.1 Flood of the Yangtze River in 2019.
The water level gauge of Hankou Hydrological Station, which was taken at 8 am on July 15th. Affected by the continuous rainfall in the upper reaches, the water level in Hubei section of the main stream of the Yangtze River continues to rise. At 14: 00 on July 15th, the water level of Hankou Hydrological Station in the Yangtze River reached 26.09 meters, 1.09 meters higher than the fortification water level (25 meters). Xinhua News Agency reporter Cheng Minshe
In the past few days, the rivers and lakes in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River have remained high. According to the latest meeting of the Yangtze River Committee, from 8: 00 on July 14th to 8: 00 on July 15th, there were still 44 stations in the Yangtze River Basin that exceeded the police, and 2 stations exceeded the guarantee, with an exceeding range of 0.02 to 4.28 meters. In the Dongting Lake Basin, where the flood is the most tense, the Xiangjiang River is over-police, and Hengyang Station and Xiangtan Station are over-guaranteed.
Chen Min, director of the Flood and Drought Disaster Prevention Bureau of the Yangtze River Committee, said that at present, the highest water level has appeared at Qilishan Station, the Dongting Lake export control station, and the flood is advancing downstream. The water level at Hankou Station in the main stream will continue to rise slowly, and the water level at Wharf Town Station in the main stream will exceed the police on the 16th, and the flood at Hukou Station and jiujiang railway station will continue to rise to around the 17th, when the maximum exceeding police level will be about 1m.
Chen Min said that the flood control situation in the Yangtze River is still grim. Through consultation, the Yangtze River Committee continued to issue a yellow flood warning and maintained a Class III emergency response to flood prevention in the Yangtze River.
Watch out for the "sharp turn of drought and flood" when the rainfall area moves westward to the middle and lower reaches
Flood control experts said that in the future, affected by the western Pacific subtropical high extending westward and northward, the rainfall center area will be transferred from the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River to the upper reaches, and the flood control of the Yangtze River will enter a critical period.
The hydrometeorological forecast shows that there will be a new round of rainfall in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and the Han River in the coming week. From 15th to 17th, there was moderate to heavy rain and local heavy rain from west to east in the north of the main stream of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. From 18th to 20th, there were moderate to heavy rains and local rainstorms in the middle and lower reaches of Jinsha River, Jialing River, Minjiang River, near the main stream of the upper reaches of Yangtze River and Wujiang River. On the 21st, the rainfall center moved northward to Jialing River and Minjiang River Basin.
Ding Shengxiang, director of the Dispatching Department of the Flood and Drought Disaster Prevention Bureau of the Yangtze River Committee, said that according to the current water and rain situation and considering the rainfall in the foreseeable period, it is estimated that the inflow of the Three Gorges Reservoir will have a flood process of about 40,000 cubic meters per second around the 21st.
The ship sailed into the waters of the Yangtze River (left) from the Han River (right) (photographed by drone on July 15). Xinhua News Agency reporter Cheng Minshe
Chen Min said that the regional shift of rainfall will bring a "respite" to the two lakes, but this does not mean that the flood control work can be taken lightly. At present, the water level of rivers, lakes and reservoirs is high, and dike projects have experienced long-term immersion, so it is easy to collapse during the water withdrawal period. At the same time, the weather forecast shows that there is no obvious rainfall process in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from now until the beginning of August, so we need to be alert to the "sudden turn of flood and drought" and the "second plum blossom" in the middle and lower reaches similar to that in 1998.
Chen Min emphasized that there are many rivers and large river basins in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, and moderate to heavy rain can cause large floods. According to the current situation and forecast of water and rain, the possibility of basin flood in the Yangtze River basin this year is lower than that predicted before the flood season, but the possibility still exists.
Weak links still exist and can be supplemented by non-engineering measures.
Many rounds of heavy rainfall have caused many dangers in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. According to the situation reported by the Water Resources Department of Hunan and Jiangxi provinces, the heavy rainfall in early July alone caused 19 dangers in the water system of the two lakes, including 8 dangers in reservoirs and 11 dangers in dikes.
"After years of construction, the flood control and disaster reduction capacity of the Yangtze River basin has been significantly improved. However, due to the contradiction between the huge flood volume of the Yangtze River and the safe discharge of the river, judging from the dangerous situations and disasters reported in various places this year, there are still some weak links in the flood control and disaster reduction system of the Yangtze River." Chen Min said.
This is a village in Meidong Village, Jiuwei Town, Jinchengjiang District, Hechi City, Guangxi Province, which was affected by floods and caused road interruption (photographed by drone on July 14). Xinhua News Agency reporter Zhou Hua photo
First of all, the flood control capacity of tributaries and lakes is still low. Flood control experts said that the main tributaries and important lake dikes in the Yangtze River basin have wide areas and long lines, weak foundations and poor dike quality. This year, there have been many dangers of excessive flood dykes in Xiangjiang River in Hunan Province, and major dangers such as dike collapse have also occurred in Maquanwei, Xinjiang, Jiangxi Province.
Secondly, the pressure on the safety of small and medium-sized reservoirs is great. There are 51,200 reservoirs in the Yangtze River basin, including more than 49,000 small and medium-sized reservoirs. One third of the small and medium-sized reservoirs are in danger to varying degrees. In recent years, the state has intensified the reinforcement and construction of dangerous reservoirs, but it has not been cured. During the previous unannounced inspection, the Yangtze River Committee also found that the "three responsible persons" and "three key links" of some small and medium-sized reservoirs have not been fully implemented.
Chen Min said that in the long run, it is imperative to make up the shortcomings of water conservancy projects. It is necessary to continue to carry out the short-board construction of flood control and drought relief water conservancy projects, improve the flood control engineering system of the basin, and improve the flood control and disaster reduction capacity of the basin. At the same time, it is also necessary to upgrade the construction of non-engineering measures to the same height as the shortcomings of water conservancy projects, and effectively strengthen hydrological monitoring and forecasting, water project scheduling, flood control safety management, and laws and regulations. In the process of defending against the rainstorm and flood in early July, the water conservancy department lowered the starting water level by dispatching the pre-discharge of Zhexi Reservoir, so that the flood that may exceed the guarantee of 1.5 meters was controlled below the warning water level.
What do you think of the flood this year? —— Information connection from Emergency Management Department, Ministry of Water Resources and China Meteorological Bureau.