Original title: Xinhua Viewpoint’s important data in the first quarter was released. How do you view the current economic situation?
In 2022, the first quarterly report of China’s economy was released on the 18th: the gross domestic product (GDP) was 270.178 billion yuan, up 4.8% year-on-year.
In the face of the multiple tests brought about by the increasingly complex and severe international environment and frequent domestic epidemics, how do you view this "transcript"? The "Xinhua Viewpoint" reporter combed the key data.
GDP increased by 4.8% year-on-year.
In the first quarter, China’s GDP increased by 4.8% year-on-year, 0.8 percentage points higher than that in the fourth quarter of 2021 and 1.3% higher than that in the previous quarter.
Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the National Economic Statistics Department, said that since the beginning of this year, the international situation has become more complicated and severe, and the domestic epidemic situation has also shown the characteristics of multiple points, wide coverage and frequent occurrence, which has increased the impact on economic operation. Facing the complicated situation, efforts were made from the central government to the local government to stabilize the macro-economic market and effectively cope with the risk challenges. The national economy continued to recover and the overall start was stable.
He also pointed out that since March, the world situation has evolved in a complicated way, and the impact of domestic epidemics has continued, and some unexpected factors have exceeded expectations. The growth rate of some major indicators has slowed down and the downward pressure on the economy has increased.
"Don’t take it lightly and don’t lose heart." Yang Guangpu, an associate researcher at the the State Council Development Research Center, said that although it is more difficult to achieve the annual growth target, the long-term fundamentals of China’s economy have not changed; With the continuous optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention and control policies and a series of steady growth policies, there is a foundation to achieve the annual growth target of around 5.5%.
Residents’ income grew steadily.
In the first quarter, the per capita disposable income of the national residents was 10,345 yuan, a real increase of 5.1% after deducting the price factor. Among them, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 13,832 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%; The per capita disposable income of rural residents was 5,778 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%.
From the source of income, the per capita wage income, net operating income, net property income and net transfer income of the national residents increased by 6.6%, 5.4%, 6.1% and 6.3% respectively in nominal terms.
Guang Xu Jian, a professor at School of Public Administration, Renmin University of China, said that wage income grew rapidly among residents’ income sources, which to some extent showed that policies and measures to stabilize market players and ensure employment continued to be effective, but the growth of net operating income was relatively low, reflecting that the recovery of the operating conditions of small and micro enterprises and self-employed individuals was still not in place.
Consumption growth is restrained to some extent.
In the first quarter, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 10,865.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. Among them, in March, the total retail sales of social consumer goods decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, which was the first negative growth since August 2020.
Fu Linghui said that despite the recent epidemic, in the first quarter, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure growth to economic growth was 69.4%, which was still the largest among the three major demands. As the impact of the epidemic is gradually controlled, the employment priority policy will continue to exert its strength, which will promote the consumption power and willingness of residents.
Yang Guangpu said that with more and more urban real estate regulation and control, residents’ reasonable demand for real estate is expected to be released, and new consumption growth will be conducive to sustained consumption growth.
Both foreign trade and foreign investment remain "open and stable"
In the first quarter, the total import and export value of China’s goods trade increased by 10.7% year-on-year, and the actually used foreign capital increased by 25.6% year-on-year, both of which continued double-digit growth.
Affected by the epidemic, some foreign trade enterprises are facing stage problems such as blocked production and operation and poor logistics and transportation.
Zhuang Rui, a professor at university of international business and economics National Institute of Opening-up, believes that under the current situation, it is still necessary to ensure that the policies of stabilizing foreign trade and helping enterprises to bail out difficulties are implemented in detail, and enterprises should also take the initiative to attack according to the new characteristics of foreign trade, seize the opportunity of system dividends, new models and new formats, and constantly improve their ability to resist risks and competitiveness.
Zhao Ping, vice president of the Research Institute of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, believes that the epidemic situation is temporary, and China has a strong industrial base and a stable investment environment, which will provide more opportunities for foreign-funded enterprises in the process of continuously promoting high-quality development and high-level opening up.
The investment growth rate rebounded rapidly.
In the first quarter, the national investment in fixed assets increased by 9.3% year-on-year. Among them, infrastructure investment increased by 8.5%, manufacturing investment increased by 15.6% and real estate development investment increased by 0.7%.
Wang Jingwen, director of the Macro Research Center of China Minsheng Bank Research Institute, believes that accelerating the deployment and utilization of government special bonds from the central government to the local government to expand effective investment has promoted the growth rate of infrastructure investment to rebound. However, affected by the epidemic and other factors, in the past two months, many industries have faced some pressure to maintain steady investment growth.
Fu Linghui said that as China’s efforts to support the development of the real economy continue to increase, the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries and the innovation and development momentum of emerging industries will increase, which will help drive the growth of industrial investment. At the same time, focusing on the major strategic deployment of the country and the "14 th Five-Year Plan", it is also conducive to the expansion of investment to moderately advance infrastructure investment.
Consumer prices maintained a moderate increase.
In the first quarter, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 1.1% year-on-year. From March, CPI rose by 1.5% year-on-year, which was larger than last month, and was generally within a reasonable range.
Guo Liyan, director of the Comprehensive Situation Research Office of China Macroeconomic Research Institute, said that the continuous sharp decline in pork prices has lowered the CPI increase. However, due to factors such as the multi-point epidemic in China and the increase in international commodity prices since March, the CPI increase has expanded year-on-year, and some people’s livelihood commodities such as fresh vegetables have increased significantly.
Fu Linghui said that from the perspective of supply, grain production has been bumper and stocks are abundant; The production capacity of live pigs has generally recovered, the supply of pork is generally sufficient, and the price is still falling. At the same time, the measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices in the market will continue to be effective, which is also conducive to price stability. Therefore, there are foundations and conditions for maintaining overall price stability.
Commodity prices rose.
Geopolitical conflict, international commodity price innovation and other factors have driven domestic commodity prices to rise. In the first quarter, the national producer price index (PPI) rose by 8.7% year-on-year, including a 1.1% increase in March.
Fu Linghui said that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has affected the efficiency of the global supply chain, and the transportation and transaction costs of bulk commodities have increased, which has increased the pressure of rising prices. Therefore, under the background of tight supply and demand relationship and increasing uncertainty in the international commodity market, it is more likely that the price will fluctuate at a high level.
In view of the abnormal fluctuations in the prices of commodities such as coal and iron ore, Guo Liyan said that as the effects of a series of measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices continue to appear, it is expected that the PPI will gradually decline in general during the year, and it is suggested that enterprises should make plans for energy use, employment, inventory and investment to ensure that the production and operation of enterprises remain stable.
Employment pressure has increased.
In the first quarter, 2.85 million new jobs were created in cities and towns nationwide, and the national average unemployment rate was 5.5%, slightly higher than the same period of last year by 0.1 percentage point. Among them, in March, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.8%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.
Fu Linghui believes that January and February were mainly due to seasonal factors, and job-seekers changed jobs before and after the Spring Festival, which led to an increase in the national urban survey unemployment rate. Since March, affected by the domestic epidemic, the production and operation difficulties of enterprises have increased, and the employment difficulties of some people have increased.
"The employment priority policy has continued to exert its strength, and the efforts to help enterprises bail out have also increased, and the employment situation has remained basically stable." Fu Linghui said that this year, the government will further reduce taxes and fees and increase its support for the real economy, which is conducive to the development of enterprises and stabilize jobs. At the same time, the sustained development of entrepreneurial innovation is also conducive to promoting the increase of jobs; Strengthening vocational skills training and employment assistance is also conducive to the convergence of supply and demand in the job market.
The real estate market is expected to stabilize gradually.
In the first quarter of this year, the real estate market showed a certain downward trend: the investment in real estate development increased by 0.7% year-on-year, while the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 13.8% and the sales of commercial housing decreased by 22.7%.
Fu Linghui said that with the moderate liberalization of restrictions on purchases and sales, lowering the threshold for the use of provident funds, and speeding up the approval of home purchase loans, the housing demand in some cities has been released, and the decline in sales area has narrowed.
He believes that in the next stage, all localities will adhere to the principle of "staying and not speculating", continue to stabilize land prices, stabilize housing prices, stabilize expectations, improve the long-term mechanism of the real estate market, and actively meet reasonable housing demand, and the downward trend of commercial housing sales nationwide may be alleviated; With the continuous improvement of the long-term rental market and the acceleration of the construction of affordable housing, the real estate market is expected to gradually stabilize. (Reporter Zou Duowei, Shu Jing, Xie Xiyao, Song Jia, Liu Weiwei, Natalie, Meng Yingru)
