[Viewpoint] Shen Yin Wanguo： After the rebound of glass soda ash, it is mainly to wait and see.

　　Before the holiday, the glass contract in January rose continuously. With the introduction of recent policies, the expected improvement of fundamentals is the main driving force for the recent glass rebound. Pay attention to the drive of consumption in the market outlook and the adjustment of upstream supply, as well as the actual digestion of supply and demand. In the medium term, observe the effect brought by the change of real estate policy and the change of processing profit of glass enterprises themselves. Before the holiday, the contract price of soda ash in January closed on the positive line. The market outlook pays attention to the process of supply and demand adjustment, especially the adjustment degree of supply end and inventory change, and at the same time pays attention to the degree of supply contraction of downstream glass. Generally speaking, after the continuous rebound of glass soda ash, it is mainly to wait and see.

　　Urea: the commodity atmosphere is high, and the price of urea is rising again. In terms of spot, the urea market in Shandong is running firmly, with the mainstream turnover of small particles of 1780-1820 yuan/ton. The reference price of primary traders in Linyi market is around 1830-1840 yuan/ton, and the reference price of Heze market is around 1820-1830 yuan/ton. In terms of news, the utilization rate of urea production capacity was 86.33%, up 1.13% from the previous month. During the cycle, the daily output of urea in Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia and other provinces has gradually increased to more than 190,000 tons, while the downstream demand is weak, and the delivery pressure of urea enterprises is obvious, and some of them have a tendency to expand. By September 25th, 2024, the total inventory of urea enterprises in China was 1,013,900 tons, an increase of 161,100 tons from last week and 18.89% from the previous month. Overall, post-holiday energy prices will support urea prices.